Change we can't believe in

Is it just me, or is this turning into one of the dullest election campaigns in recent years (cheered up only by Mitt Romney's intermittent blunders)?  Lately, Romney just can't seem to get his act together.  His campaign slogan urges voters to "Believe in America".  But that could prove tricky as neither his party nor his campaign team seem able to believe in their man.

This is a boon for Obamaites, waiting to be led to victory once again by a more sombre version of the man who promised "Change we can believe in" back in 2008.

By rights, it should be President Obama who is under pressure, given the state of the economy.  But for election-watchers out there, as Obama strides ahead in critical swing states, the stakes have been driven down.  Just last week an NBC / Wall Street Journal poll cast Obama as leading by seven points in Ohio, and five points in both Florida and Virginia (although both the American Research Group and Rasmussen think it's much closer than that).  Ohio is vital to a candidate's prospects of winning the White House.  The canny state has cast its vote the wrong way only once since 1944.  Even though the Republican has gained the edge in one national poll, it must make worrying reading for Team Romney.

The Republican candidate's speech on American foreign policy following the death of the US Ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, felt like another step backwards.  His response to the Ambassdor's death and violent protests in the Middle East appeared reactionary, ill-timed and inauthentic.  And it largely played that way too.  After a brief sugar high from the Republican National Convention in Tampa, the Romney campaign appears to be in real trouble.  Last week's foreign policy speech just seemed to cement Romney's inability to find middle ground between his comfort zone of the economy and keeping the Republican base happy.

But the latest media storm has more of the feel of a tipping point for Romney.  He was recorded at a fundraising event telling Republican donors that nearly half the US population are government dependant victims (the Obama-voting 47 percent, that is).  Ouch.  I'm guessing it was a bid to get the donors digging deeper into their pockets.  What the candidate clearly forgot was that a portion of his own base - namely senior citizens - rely on Medicare (the system whereby the government guarantees health insurance to the over-65s, among others).

The former Massachussetts Governor never promised to be the kind of dynamic candidate that a party could really get behind, which leaves me wondering why Republicans aren't running the campaign of the century.  With unemployment running at 8 percent, Romney's solid business background at Bain should have him easily winning that particular argument.  He's certainly been relentless in pushing his economic message.  But where are the policies?  Where is the personality?  When it comes down to it, it is less about the gaffes.  Romney's camp has so far failed to articulate what a Romney presidency would look like and add sufficient meat to the bones of his core message.  And Romney himself has struggled to connect with voters, contrasting President Obama's natural ease on the campaign trail.

But it's not just about off-the-cuff remarks or even the polls, it's about momentum going into these back seven weeks.  Even having the most motivated volunteers in the tightest state races can make a small but important difference to getting the vote out.  Of course, US presidential elections are unpredictable beasts, and nothing riles voters more than the assumption that one candidate is a shoo-in.  But as we move into the final leg of the race, it's really down to Romney to make his case for President in a convincing and authentic way.  And if he doesn't crack on with it sharpish, he'll surely founder in his second bid for the White House.